With the imminent release of the first HD-DVD players this month, Agent86 is ready to put a stake in the ground concerning the upcoming format wars between the two competing high-definition video disc standards: HD-DVD and Blu-ray. While both of these players can play audio discs and standard DVD discs, they cannot play teach other’s high-definition video disc formats. Yes indeed folks, it’s BetaMax vs. VHS all over again. But fear not. I’m ready to make my prediction on the eventual victor.

First of all, there are many other sites that discuss the technical differences between these two formats, so I won’t belabor them here. In fact, while an interesting discussion point, I don’t see the technical differences between the two formats having much of an effect on the eventual winner. After all, BetaMax was a better technology for video tape, but it wasn’t enough to save it.

Enough with the preliminaries: HD-DVD will be victorious! Hogwash you say? Want to know my reasoning? Read on…

Technical Merit

Many sites argue the technical merits of these two formats. Bottom line: Blu-ray has higher capacity, which is the basis for the other technical advantages it has over HD-DVD. The additional capacity allows it to store slightly higher quality motion pictures (or longer movies on a single disc).

I’m willing to concede that Blu-ray is technically superior, but I’m betting most people won’t care. Why? Both HD-DVD and Blu-ray look WAY better than standard DVD. Any slight advantage between the two will be lost on most buyers. In addition, most recent HD screens don’t have the capability to accurately display the video from HD-DVD sources, not alone Blu-ray. The output of these video players is superior to most new HD sets. As for movie playing time, it’s rare to find a title that won’t fit entirely on a single HD-DVD disc, so unless the studios make three hour movies the norm, it isn’t much of an issue.

Player Availability

HD-DVD players will be available first. Most likely, Blu-ray players will show up 5 – 6 months later. This is obviously an advantage for HD-DVD. It is a chicken-and-the-egg scenario. People need players before movie titles will be bought. Movie titles won’t be produced until people will buy them, and they won’t buy something they can’t watch.

Movie Title Availability

In the beginning, it was thought that title availability would be the pivotable issue in this war. After all, if the movies I want to watch are being released on Blu-ray, I’d better not buy an HD-DVD player. Turns out that this issue won’t be much of a factor in the format war. Yes, it will be an aggravation, but right now, it looks like the movie studios are roughly split between the two formats. It’s likely some of the movies you want to watch will only be available in the “other” format, no matter which player you choose. Slowly, some of the studios are making promises to eventually release in both formats.

Cost

HD-DVD players are estimated to cost anywhere from 30% to 50% lower, per device, than Blu-ray players at their initial release. This is due to the relative complexity of the machines. Both players will be pricey at first, but are expected to drop in price over the next year or two in a fashion typical of consumer electronics. Having a lower price is always an advantage, and remember that a 30% to 50% price difference will be magnified in terms of absolute dollars in the first months after their availability and before both their price tags start to drop. Unfortunately for Blu-ray, those first few months are the most important time in an acceptance war .

The Early Adopter

Many people will wait to buy either HD-DVD or Blu-ray, until it becomes clear which format will eventually prevail. These people are non-combatants in this war. They’ll have no effect on the result. The war will be over before they buy. It’s the early adopters who will decide the outcome. That’s why I discuss them here. My predictions aside, early adopters will be buying one of these players long before it is certain which format will prevail. Some of these buyers will be videophiles, and will choose Blu-ray, regardless of price, for the promise of the best technically possible picture. However, many other early adopters will not be video purists, but simply video enthusiasts who maintain a video library of their favorite films. They’d rather not buy more regular DVD’s (a soon to be defunct format) for the next additions to their home library. I think their thought process will be as follows:

“I want to get a new player to take advantage of my new HD screen, and I’d rather buy any new movies for my library in one of the high-definition formats, rather than continuing to invest in standard DVD formats which will soon be going the way of the dinosaurs. Which format player should I choose? Both are expensive right now, but HD-DVD is cheaper. Both players will be cheaper in a year. If I buy an HD-DVD player now, and it wins the war, I’m good. If it looses the war, I’ll have to buy a Blu-ray player down the road, but by then, it’ll have dropped in price substantially. It may even drop low enough to be had for the difference I’d have to pay today to start with Blu-ray. The best case is that I guess the correct format now, but if I happen to guess wrong, it’s better to have bought the cheaper player now. If I guess wrong, I’ll eventually come close to paying the same amount as I’d spend today on Blu-ray, but I’ll have both player types. I’ll buy an HD-DVD player today.”

This sort of behavior will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If early adopters hedge their bets by buying HD-DVD, HD-DVD will win.