U.S. Weather Forecasts Suck!…..
I saw an interesting editorial on the news the other day….  It was about how the U.S. was way behind the rest of the World in Weather Forecasting…..  It said that during the ’80’s and ’90’s, the U.S. failed to upgrade/update the necessary hardware/software needed to predict accurate long range predictions, in other words, we were too cheap to spend the money, while European and other nations were investing 10 times what the U.S. was in this important aspect of our lives….  As an example, they stated that the European computer models accurately  predicted that Hurricane Sandy would make a left turn and strike the Northeastern U.S. while all the U.S. computer models predicted it would stay in the Atlantic and turn slowly to the right moving further out into the ocean…..  This is really, really sad, as we continue our decline in about everything from Education, Space Exploration, Manufacturing, Jobs – Ah-h-h-h!!!….  You name it and we’re closing in on last place!…..  We used to “The Leader” of the World in all those things, and now we are fast becoming the “Bozos” of the known World….  What happened?….  You should know, unless you’re just one of the millions of dumb “Bozos” standing in line to do whatever the corrupt I, Me, Mine Politicians, whom YOU ELECTED, tell you what Cliff to jump off of!….  Is that “Bozos” or “Lemmings”?…..
March 14th, 2013 at 10:00 pm
Well, I can speak a little on US NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction, a.k.a. forecasting models) being behind the Europeans. There are a number of reasons for this, dating all the way back to the mid-90s misguided requirement that all the computers used at NMC/NCEP be “Made in the U.S.A.,” back when all the good supercomputers were being made in Japan. But even more than that there’s a difference in culture in how NWP models are developed. In the U.S., it’s very insular; in Europe, there’s *lots* of cooperation/collaboration among the NWP efforts, academics, research labs, and climate prediction. In Europe, there’s less of an “us and them” attitude between the NWP/weather and climate communities.
And lastly, I know a lot of these Europeans who work on these models and related atmospheric research — they’re very bright, and there’s no reason aside from rah-rah jingoism that we should be #1 in everything technical.
March 15th, 2013 at 8:06 am
Much thanks, HS, for giving us a more in-depth look at what happened….. The News Media is, as usual, very vague in details….. I remember the “Made in America” clauses in all of the government contracts the company I worked for in the ’80’s and ’90’s…. “All materials used in Government construction MUST be Made in the good old U.S. of A., unless, the specified material/product is not produced in the U.S.”…. Another good point you made was our (The U.S. of A.) inherent lack of cooperation/collaboration between different Government agencies and other countries of the World …. It is a definite disability that affects us all….
I do agree with you that we don’t need to be #1 in everything….. We do need to realize that if we (our Government) would cooperate and collaborate with the rest of the World in all things scientific/academic, we would all be the better for it, and, at a minimum, we might not destroy the Planet (at least, not at the alarming rate we are now)…..
March 18th, 2013 at 4:19 pm
So what you’re saying is the standard computer in the NWS is a commodore? That explains a lot. It seems that with the technology that I have out here the weather channel app and mobile site is more accurate than http://www.weather.gov
March 18th, 2013 at 7:28 pm
They have less computational resources than the Europeans have WAY more iron than The Weather Channel. I mean, sheesh…
March 19th, 2013 at 8:39 am
Don’t be insulting the Commodore, Mr. J…… I still have a couple of them, including a 128 and what Jek and I call a “Commodore in a box”, which, I believe was the first portable computer made….. It’s a bit big to call it a laptop, but, it has everything built-in, including a huge 5″ monitor screen!….
….And, as HS says, we have the most qualified personnel in the World on the job doing the best they can with what’s furnished to them by our No-Priority Government…. I’m sorry, they do have a Priority – Make themselves Rich and Powerful Smegheads!…..
March 23rd, 2013 at 6:58 pm
Now this is a coincidence! I glanced at my wall calendar a few minutes ago and noticed at the bottom it has some event that happened in the month that’s on display…… I usually don’t ever look at them, but, this one definitely caught my eye!….. Here it is: “March 5 – On this day in 1950, calculations for the first computerized weather forecast began at a U.S. Army lab.”….. Is that a cool quirk or what?….. How did they forecast the weather before then?….. Look out the window? (Ha!)…..
March 24th, 2013 at 3:26 pm
Yep… Jule Charney, John von Neumann, et al., performed the first numerical weather prediction forecast (simple barotropic model) on the Army’s ENIAC computer.
March 25th, 2013 at 8:50 am
You the Man, HS!…. The Weatherman’s Weatherman!…. The Patriarch of the Weather Industry…. Well, I guess it’s not an Industry, unless, you can manufacture rain, can you?…. Honored to have you in the MR Community…. We can always expect an accurate and informative answer to any of our usually dumb questions about the Weather and Global conditions…..